Yesterday I came across a quote by G. R. R. Martin:
Ruling is hard. This was maybe my answer to Tolkien, whom, as much as I admire him, I do quibble with. Lord of the Rings had a very medieval philosophy: that if the king was a good man, the land would prosper. We look at real history and it’s not that simple. Tolkien can say that Aragorn became king and reigned for a hundred years, and he was wise and good. But Tolkien doesn’t ask the question: What was Aragorn’s tax policy? Did he maintain a standing army? What did he do in times of flood and famine? <…>
Real-life kings had real-life problems to deal with. Just being a good guy was not the answer. You had to make hard, hard decisions. Sometimes what seemed to be a good decision turned around and bit you in the ass; it was the law of unintended consequences. I’ve tried to get at some of these in my books. My people who are trying to rule don’t have an easy time of it. Just having good intentions doesn’t make you a wise king.
I immensely admire both Martin and Tolkien. If you are also a fan, you can learn a lot about management just by following this imaginary debate. It’s one thing to study from textbooks. But when you recognize patterns in emotionally charged arcs, it’s much closer to gaining your own experience. Let’s go!
Where and why Robb Stark failed as a manager
Robb Stark is the clearest representation of “Ruling is hard. Just being a good guy is not the answer.“ Martin was very thorough and made the Young Wolf face almost every type of CEO problems. I am sure any boss can relate:
Unclear task setting for not-so-bright subordinates. Robb told Edmure to “hold Riverrun“ and then was furious that Edmure didn’t understend his whole strategy and accidentally destroyed it1. Rookie mistake. Any manager learns pretty quickly that if a task can be interpreted in the wrong way, it will be interpreted in the wrong way.
Unreliable team members being given important tasks. Appointing top executives and tracking how well they are suited to their jobs is a core part of a CEO’s workload. Roose Bolton is a prominent commander in Robb’s army despite the horrendous reputation of his house. Bolton was a good choice when Robb needed to distract lord Tywin, but holding Harrenhal is a much more straightforward task. It’s pretty clear what needs to be done. Recall Bolton to Riverrun, benefit from his cunning counsel and keep an eye on him.
Ignoring structural risks even when they are apparent. It took a very long time before Robb realized (only with Catelyn’s help2) that he should defend the North from the Ironborn to preserve his power base instead of valiantly fighting Lannisters. Just like most CEOs love ambitious projects and hate housekeeping.
Not dealing with a disgruntled team member. Rickard Karstark was unhappy and annoyed for a long time before he actually caused problems. Robb did nothing about it besides having a talk with him. He could have sent Karstark to retake the North, solving both problems.
Also: personal life affecting business (the marriage with Jeyne Westerling), rigidity in decision making (the Karstark execution), lack of team alignment around strategic goals (allowing the Riverlords to go defend their own lands separately)…
Many of Robb’s mistakes stem from being a good guy: honorable, trusting, forgiving and consistent with his values. It seems Martin’s thesis is proven as much as it can be by means of fiction. But does it mean that another good guy — Aragorn — would also face the same devastating issues and fail? Not at all!
Why Aragorn’s success as a ruler is almost guaranteed
Whether you are a good guy or not is not the only variable that affects your results as a manager. We tend to overestimate how much success is tied to personal traits and underestimate the specifics of a situation: resources, opportunities, threats.
Robb started to rule in insanely harsh conditions. Strong enemies. Zero people he had worked with before. Long borders to defend. No allies. Theoretically royal power, but in practice he is dismissed as a “boy” from time to time. You have to be a grandmaster of Machiavellian games to win.
Aragorn started to rule after he won his war. See how many structural advantages he has:
A happy and secure personal life.
Battle-tested talent pool of literal superhumans with the highest moral standards. Can you imagine someone from the Grey Company scheming like the Boltons?
Wise advisors. Imagine how good Elrond with his thousands of years of experience would be in the role of a management consultant.
Immense fame and undisputed authority. Aragorn just won the war, performed miracles and married an Eldar princess.
Go to the list of Robb’s challenges and see how many problems this eliminates. And note that all of these factors have nothing to do with Aragorn being a skilled statesman. He can be just okay-ish and the Reunited Kingdom will prosper anyway. Suboptimal tax policy? Who cares if you have vast Eriador ripe for peaceful colonization.
To clarify: Aragorn is very likely to be an excellent statesman. He was in the trenches for decades, knows the country like no one else and got the best possible education in Rivendell. My point is, he had such a massive margin of error that we don’t need to discuss his abilities at all.
Aragorn basically ruled on easy mode. He dealt the hard stuff before his coronation.
This easy mode3, however, has its caveats.
The final management challenge to rule them all
Let’s forget for a moment about kings. What does a business do when it has plenty of structural advantages and enjoys playing on easy mode? More often than not the company loses its focus on creating shareholder value:
Bureaucracy grows, innovations decline.
Protecting the status quo becomes more important than development.
Management gets carried away with empire-building and hype trends.
Recent example: Meta’s $80B spending on the Metaverse. It was not necessarily a bad bet (if it worked everyone would praise Zukerberg’s genius). What’s important is that such risky projects can be funded only when the business is doing exceptionally well. Structural advantages increase chances of inventing problems instead of dealing with disciplined capital allocation.
Aragorn’s final test was to be exactly a wise and good guy, not to screw things up because of ego, greed or fear. The film trilogy highlights how Aragorn passed the test of the Ring, much unlike Isildur. But there is another character in the Legendarium to whom we are bound to compare Aragorn.
Many years before Isildur, the Númenórean king Ar-Pharazôn also ruled in the easy mode. His army was so powerful that he captured Sauron without much fight. Some time after he started to worship Morgoth, became obsessed with immortality, and declared war on the Valar4.
Aragorn didn’t do any such things, passing the final challenge. So the land’s prosperity was a foregone conclusion.
Let’s summarize
Martin is totally right: ruling is hard as hell.
But sometimes a leader has plenty of structural advantages and rules in the easy mode.
The problem with easy mode is that people tend to create problems themselves. Being a good guy helps prevent that.
And the final conclusion:
There are times when an organization needs a crisis manager with exceptional problem-solving skills. And there are times when we need a reliable leader who who lets the business come into its own.
If you are not in the easy mode and need help with management challenges, you can schedule a call with me and I’ll help to sort them out.
“I told you to hold Riverrun,” said Robb. “What part of that command did you fail to comprehend?”
“When you stopped Lord Tywin on the Red Fork,” said the Blackfish, “you delayed him just long enough for riders out of Bitterbridge to reach him with word of what was happening to the east. Lord Tywin turned his host at once, joined up with Matthis Rowan and Randyll Tarly near the headwaters of the Blackwater, and made a forced march to Tumbler’s Falls, where he found Mace Tyrell and two of his sons waiting with a huge host and a fleet of barges. They floated down the river, disembarked half a day’s ride from the city, and took Stannis in the rear.”
“So long as Theon Greyjoy sits in your father's seat with your brothers' blood on his hands, these other foes must wait. Your first duty is to defend your own people, win back Winterfell, and hang Theon in a crow's cage to die slowly. Or else put off that crown for good, Robb, for men will know that you are no true king at all.”
The situation when a country or organization has so many structural advantages that it can do without much effort are not uncommon.
Take Calvin Coolidge (US president 1923–1929). He famously worked only a few hours a day and napped for 2-4 hours every afternoon. Why not? The WWI ended, the economy was growing, no major problems to deal with.
And don’t forget Robert Baratheon. He managed to rule ~15 years without putting much effort in the state affairs. Yes, he was killed eventually, because nothing is permanent and 15 years in politics is a very long timeframe.
Which quickly led to his death and the destruction of Númenor.
This was an interesting read. I didn't watch House of Dragon though. If that is where Aragorn story comes from. I agree with the fact that Ned didn't really handle the whole leadership thing well. Not because he was weak, but because he was just too good. As a leader, you need a balance of the both. You need to know when to draw your claws out and when to retrieve. Ned didn't really know that.